Word: intifadas
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...Clinton war-room veteran James Carville may have helped Ehud Barak get elected last year, but the Israeli prime minister's political survival now appears dependent on the sort of U-turns conjured up by the Clinton administration's former policy Svengali. As the death toll from the renewed intifada in the West Bank and Gaza reached 161 Monday - all but 12 of them Arab - the prime minister elected on promises of completing the peace process started by Yitzhak Rabin found himself fighting for his political life Monday, having failed to form an emergency unity government with Ariel Sharon...
...Yasser Arafat finds himself its prisoner. He needed this uprising to prove to the Israelis and Americans that the deal being offered on Jerusalem simply wouldn't fly, but it's quickly evolved into something way beyond negotiating leverage. Arafat over the weekend called for an intensification of the intifada, even though he knows full well that the sacrifices this involves won't win him the state he covets. But like his Israeli counterpart, the Palestinian leader has few political options. Arafat is forced to either be the spokesman of the intifada or else become increasingly irrelevant to the conduct...
...surprise, but of far deeper concern to the Palestinian leader is the fact that much of the grassroots leadership of his own Fatah organization has been equally, and as openly, scornful of the cease-fire. Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who has played a central role in organizing the current intifada, publicly dismissed the Sharm el-Sheik agreement Tuesday, and vowed to continue to fight to end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat may have to look long and hard to find a constituency of Palestinians with any faith in the agreement he brought home this week...
...fact that Palestinian rage over events in Jerusalem could have escalated within hours to an intifada-style uprising throughout the West Bank and Gaza is a stark reminder that six years after the Oslo Accord, the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza hasn't ever really ended. From the dusty refugee camps of Gaza and the biblical towns of the West Bank, Palestinians looking to vent their rage on Israeli troops and settlements didn't have to look further than within walking distance of their homes. Israel was under attack in the last three weeks...
...political authority, even over his own loyalists, may have waned considerably - particularly in light of such situations as that which led to the Ramallah lynching, where his security forces stand between angry Palestinians and the object of their anger. This suggests that those who'll want to continue the intifada will have plenty of opportunity. Indeed, clashes continued throughout the two-day summit and after the announcement of the cease-fire...