Word: gilbert
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...That's just one of the many muddles described in the newly released book Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics, by Drs. Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz and H. Gilbert Welch. If you think you're a smart and skeptical reader of health news and pharmaceutical ads, you may want to read this book first and then think again. (See the top 10 medical breakthroughs of the past year...
...team of Harvard researchers, led by Professor of Psychology Daniel T. Gilbert, conducted two experiments in which Harvard undergraduates were asked to predict their reaction to events given either information about the event itself or surrogate information about the experience of another undergraduate who had experienced the event...
...Gilbert said that the study revealed the surprising finding that an individual’s forecasting ability is improved when they are deprived of the information they really want—details of the event itself...
...It’s natural to want information about the event, but it’s not the best way to be accurate,” Gilbert said. “Our imagination is a very poor guide to how we’ll feel in the future...
...People don’t like using others’ experiences,” Gilbert said. “In our study, we forced them to use it. But what in real life, what kind of things might you use to make them want to learn the things that they know...