Word: gdp
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...Ohio or Pennsylvania will tell you, is jobs. Even after recent gains, company payrolls have 913,000 fewer workers than when Bush took office. The worst hit came right after 9/11, with 1 million jobs lost, but the slide persisted throughout the recovery. Most voters don't watch GDP numbers, but they know how many of their neighbors are home watching TV on a Wednesday afternoon. "They just look around and see what's going on and use that to decide how to vote," says Ray Fair, a Yale University professor who has made a name for himself predicting presidential...
...South Korea hasn't sufficiently diversified its energy base, and the economic outlook there is murkier. Last year, the country spent $23.1 billion on imported oil. That amounted to 4.4% of GDP, making South Korea more exposed to oil shocks than almost any country in the region. (By comparison, energy spending came to only 2.9% of GDP in Taiwan). "In South Korea, no oil means no economic activity," says Ku Ju Kwon, director of overseas exploration at Korea National Oil Corp...
...economic output is accompanied by rising costs. The ruling Uri Party has proposed tax cuts to help spur domestic consumer and corporate spending. But export growth slowed to less than 30% year on year in August, making it less likely that the country can reach this year's target GDP growth of 5%. In this precarious situation, a spike in oil prices might well tip the country into recession. "Needless to say, if oil prices were to approach $50 per barrel and stay there, all bets would be off," wrote Goldman Sachs economist Sun Bae Kim in a recent report...
...economists in Asia are keeping one eye fixed on oil prices, the other on China. Second-quarter GDP numbers showed the economy is still growing at a blistering 9.6% per year. But Morgan Stanley's Xie warns that "China can't grow at this speed when oil prices are this high." China's annual oil bill is running at $89 billion, or 5.3% of GDP, twice as high as the global average, says Xie, who worries that if oil prices remain above $30 per barrel, growth rates will inevitably be hit. "They have to slow down," Xie says. "There...
...With luck, relief might be on the way. White, the Asia strategist for Merrill Lynch, expects crude to fall to about $35 per barrel, easing the pressure on regional economies. He sees Asia's GDP growth contracting from about 7% this year to just under 6% in 2005?still an eminently respectable performance. But in a world kept constantly on edge by terrorism, the threat of a price shock triggered by a spectacular attack on energy infrastructure or by further instability in the Middle East can't be dismissed. Says the foreign executive at the Guangdong power plant...