Word: forecaster
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...economists' first annual forecast was just a shade optimistic, but closer to the facts than most projections for 1970. The board members' predictions of 1970's gross national product averaged out at $983 billion and unemployment at 4.5%; the figures actually turned out to be $974 billion and 4.9%. The calculations for 1971 came a good deal closer. A year ago the board put the G.N.P. at $1,049.2 billion, with unemployment rising to 6.2%. The actual figures: $ 1,050 billion...
Says Marshall Loeb, senior editor of the Business and Economy sections: "Our job as journalists is not so much to forecast as to report and explain. But predicting is important because other people base their decisions on it. And it's fun-particularly if you're fortunate enough to be right...
AUTO SALES should almost equal and perhaps exceed last year. Detroit's estimates span from 10 million sales forecast by American Motors Chairman Roy Chapin to as many as 11 million foreseen by retiring General Motors Chairman James Roche. Car manufacturers agree that sales of imported cars will be held to last year's 1.5 million, ending a nine-year rise. Reason: although imported cars will also benefit from the removal of the excise tax, the currency shifts will result in the prices of U.S.-made small cars being closely competitive. If total sales do in fact rise...
ECONOMIC statistics cannot be predicted to the last billion dollars or tenth of a percentage point -and indeed it has not been unknown for some Government forecasts of the value of national production to be off by $15 billion. For 1971, TIME'S Board of Economists came closer than most seers. Its members' predictions of gross national product averaged $1,049.2 billion, and they forecast that unemployment would peak at 6% to 6.2%. The actual figures: around $1,050 billion and 6.2%. Now the economists are putting their numbers on the record for this year. Their forecasts...
...other hopeful signs. Industrial productivity is rising fast because manufacturers are increasing their output more rapidly than they are hiring workers. The new tax reductions enacted by Congress, though relatively modest, will add a further fiscal push to the economy. Adding up all factors, more and more economists forecast that the gross national product will rise next year by $100 billion, give or take a few billion, and that the real, noninflationary rate of growth will be close to 6%-roughly double this year's level...