Word: forecaster
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...best-or the worst-is still to come. As summer begins, Americans are taking to the air in unexpectedly high numbers. The airlines' forecast of an 8% to 10% traffic growth this year has been about 5 percentage points too low. Load factors, which ran at 54% last year, are climbing into the mid-60s. The outlook: the best year ever for U.S. lines, with revenues reaching $22 billion and earnings up $100 million, to $700 million. But passenger discontent is rising even faster. The Civil Aeronautics Board is receiving a record number of complaints. Departure delays, which totaled...
...degree to which the tax-quake produces the chaos forecast by its opponents is now the problem of California's ambitious Governor Jerry Brown. Indeed, his re-election prospects and future White House hopes may well rest on how he handles the highly complex crisis. Brown, who only last March warned that Proposition 13 would replace "one monster with another," had pushed a more modest Proposition 8 instead. It would have rolled back property taxes by about 30% for homeowners and tied state and local spending to rises in personal income. But as 13 picked up unstoppable momentum, Brown performed...
...many weeks ago, when car sales were running like a dry creek, General Motors Chairman Thomas Aquinas Murphy told shareholders that he was sticking to his earlier forecast of a record year. In 1978, he confidently predicted, 15.5 million cars and trucks would be delivered, topping the 1973 record of 14.45 million...
...have been giving him for several weeks: his proposed tax cut of about $25 billion is too large. In December, when he first proposed a cut of that size, Administration economists figured that it was needed to stimulate profits, investment and employment, and thus head off a business slowdown forecast for the second half of the year. Since then, inflation has picked up speed, to an annual rate of 9.2% during the first quarter of the year. Observed Charles Schultze, Carter's chief economic adviser: "Economic conditions change, and we would be idiots not to change...
...move ahead fast through the spring and summer. But it will begin to falter in the autumn and probably remain sluggish for much of 1979. The extent of the slowdown will depend on many, factors, notably Jimmy Carter's success-or failure-in fighting inflation. That is the forecast of TIME'S Board of Economists, which met last week...