Word: exportability
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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China's sweatshops have every reason to sweat. America buys about 19% of China's $90 billion in monthly exports. As the U.S. economy began to falter in late 2007, China's torrid export growth rate--for the past several years running at an annual rate of 20% or higher--was showing unmistakable signs of a slowdown. In February it plummeted to just 6.5%, compared with nearly 20% growth expected by economists. Exporters suffered major disruptions from power outages and transportation delays caused by that month's heavy snowstorms, but sluggish U.S. demand was also to blame. The value...
This overabundance of production capacity means China's export machine is like a race car with no brakes. As long as the road remains smooth and straight, the car roars ahead. But throw in some potholes and a tight turn, and the wheels come off. Factories have been able to increase output in recent years because the global economy has been on a tear. The 2004-07 period saw the second strongest bout of global growth on record--which translated into strong demand for cheap Chinese-made products. But this era may be ending. Most economists are forecasting a significant...
...Hong Kong, says factory owners in southern China believe the new law will drive labor costs an additional 10% to 25% higher. Among other provisions, the new law entitles laid-off workers to one month of severance pay for every year of employment. "In a case where an export market is going down, if you want to reduce your number of workers, then you face a lot of problems," says Stanley Lau, vice chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries. To lay off people, "you need to pay a huge amount in compensation." Nor is there any relief from...
...course, worst-case scenarios don't always come true. Anderson, the UBS economist, isn't overly pessimistic. But he sees China's export growth rate falling from about 25% a year to single digits by mid-2008. "2008 will likely be the year manufacturers [are] finally forced to take a general hit on profitability," he says. A soft landing for factories might even be beneficial for the country in the long term, because it would weed out inefficient operators and boost China's productivity. A period of "creative destruction" is an inevitable part of any business cycle. China's economic...
...government of President Cristina Fernandez blamed farmers for the increasingly unbreathable air. It continues to be on the political offensive against the private agricultural sector following a major farm strike against export taxes earlier this month. "This is the largest fire of this kind we've ever seen," said Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo in an emergency press conference at the Casa Rosada presidential palace. "It was started by farmers clearing land for cattle grazing driven by greed for profit with total disregard for human life." The President was just as harsh. "This is not a natural disaster, this...