Word: crudely
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...price hikes so far, estimates Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie, mean the Asia-Pacific region is spending 1.2% more of its total GDP on oil imports than it did last year. "There's no question that oil is the strongest headwind for growth now," says Xie. And if crude prices stay at current levels or go higher, the pain will only intensify. "This is a very delicate moment, no doubt about...
...demand is still increasing?albeit not as quickly as last year?driven by increasing consumption in China, India and the U.S. Unless that demand cools, the fear is that prices will inevitably continue to surge. Analysts who expected global economic growth to slow?thus curbing some demand for crude?as oil passed $40 and then $50 per barrel have been proved wrong. "Warnings that [$50-a-barrel oil] would threaten a global downturn turned out to be too pessimistic," says Richard Berner, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. With prices threatening to bust through $70, though, the chances...
...More pressing for China and the region: the impact of oil on the world's most powerful economy, the U.S. Like China, America has absorbed the rising price of crude with surprising ease so far. But $70, if that's where prices stick, is a different story. It's already clear, at least anecdotally, that the oil virus is finally beginning to have an impact on spending by U.S. consumers, who drive much of the world's demand. Wal-Mart, for example, has warned that its profits are already getting hit by high gasoline prices. And the retail giant...
...Crude oil is the single most important raw material for the chemical industry. So when oil prices rise sharply?as they have over the past few months?chemical companies usually feel the pinch hardest. But when the big German chemical firm Degussa announced its earnings last month, the news was far from gloomy. Heinz-Joachim Wagner, Degussa's chief financial officer, calculated that the firm's raw-material costs had risen by more than a third over the past 18 months. Still, sales and earnings were up in the first half of this year and Wagner says he expects...
...multiply that scenario across the thousands of European businesses dependent on crude oil, which hit a record $68 per bbl. last week and is up over 40% in the past six months. The result should be an inflationary spiral like the one that followed the oil shock of the mid-1970s, right? Not quite. For much of Europe, inflation remains muted; French consumer prices actually dropped in July. And the overall economic outlook seems to be improving in some places, most notably in Germany, Europe's biggest economy...