Word: census
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...next millennium is not so far off: a child born this year will still be a child, just a teenager, in the year 2000. And judging by the U.S. Census Bureau's newest calculations, that turn-of-the-century teen-ager more likely than not will be a sun-drenched type who goes around chirping, "Fer shure...
Last week the Census Bureau released its highly educated guesses about the demographic shape of the country at the turn of the century and predicted that a solid majority of the 267,461,600 resident Americans on July 1, 2000 (up from about 234 million today), will be Southerners or Pacific Coasters. These "provisional projections" assume Americans will achieve a slightly higher birth rate, live two or three years longer and, most problematically, maintain their current patterns of interstate migration. Thus, say the Government researchers, California will pull farther out in front as the most populous state, with more than...
...skimpy voter turnouts of the past few years could improve. Older citizens tend to vote in greater numbers than the young, and the Census Bureau says the median age will rise from 31 to 36 by the end of the century. There will be many more very old Americans. For instance, Arizonans over 80 will increase their number almost fivefold in two decades, from 50,000 to 228,000. Nationally, the number of people 85 and older is likely to double, to 5.1 million. To accommodate this demographic shift, cities and states may adapt existing facilities to the new circumstances...
None of the transformations, of course, are inevitable. The Census Bureau's vision of the future depends on Americans moving from state to state for the rest of the century precisely as they did during the 1970s. In fact, such patterns are apt to be tempered, changed in intensity or direction. Extrapolating from the 1970 census, the Government predicted a 1980 U.S. population of 221 million; that turned out to be short of the actual number by 5 million people. Explains Gregory Spencer of the Census Bureau: "No one who leaves New York has to sign...
After the frontier rolled out to the Pacific, the undertow pulled it back to swell the cities. Then the movement reversed again, spilling millions into newly created suburbs. Meanwhile, the American countryside has been enjoying a resurgence. The 1980 census shows that after a decade of stagnation, rural areas grew 11.1% in population in the 1970s, to nearly 60 million people. The ruburbs fall into a demographic shadowland, at the far edge of the suburbs and the near fringe of farm country, where no statistics establish their health. What seems clear is that more and more city dwellers are fleeing...