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...came the most influential of the stocks-vs.-bonds studies yet, Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. The book, which laid out the records of stocks and bonds going back to 1802 and found stocks winning by a mile for almost every 30-year period over those two centuries, became a must-read for investors. Siegel--a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School--became what one journalist described as "the intellectual godfather of the 1990s bull market...
...that particular bull died in the tech wreck. But unlike Edgar Lawrence Smith, who faded into obscurity after the '29 crash, Siegel has retained his reputation. That's partly because his book (the fourth edition of which was published last year) is full of warnings that when he says long run he really means long run--say, 20 to 30 years. It's also partly because in March 2000, just as the stock market was peaking, Siegel warned in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed column that technology stocks were headed for a precipitous fall. But it's mainly that...
...message that price matters has been getting more prominence in Siegel's work too. He says the one significant change in his advice over the past decade has been an increased emphasis on "value" stocks with prices that are low relative to earnings, book value and other fundamental measures. Both Arnott and Siegel are boosters of a new investment approach called fundamental indexing, in which one assembles a portfolio weighted by earnings, dividends or the like in order to avoid the tendency inherent in conventional capitalization-weighted index funds to load up on the most expensive stocks...
...beside the point for most Americans. "He could be right," he says of Siegel's argument that stocks are a good deal right now. "I'm just more risk-averse than he is." Bodie, co-author of the perennially best-selling business-school textbook Investments, wrote a 2003 book titled Worry-Free Investing and has been trying ever since to steer personal-finance advice in a radically new direction. For most Americans, Bodie says, stocks are entirely inappropriate vehicles for saving for retirement. The reason they outperform bonds over time is the very reason they should be avoided: they...
...point of this exercise, explained the Book of Deuteronomy, was to make sure the "abhorrent" religions of nearby peoples didn't rub off on Israelites...