Word: boarding
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Dates: during 1980-1980
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...speaker was Republican Economist Alan Greenspan, but the sentiment was shared by each of his colleagues on the TIME Board of Economists, which gathered last week to examine the economic outlook for 1981. To a man, the board agreed that the weakened U.S. economy simply cannot endure many more shocks and setbacks like those that have afflicted it for the past two years. The tone of the meeting, the fourth and final of a troubled year, was similar to that set by David Stockman, Ronald Reagan's designated new budget director, and New York Congressman Jack Kemp. Three weeks...
There was worry aplenty at last week's meeting about how much time the incoming Administration will have to return the economy to longterm, noninflationary growth. While board Republicans argued that the Reagan strategy of deep cuts in both taxes and Government spending is crucial to economic recovery, Democrats on the board considered the approach both impractical and politically naive. They feel that it could wind up actually quickening the tempo of economic upheaval and causing even more inflation...
...concern about the nation's increasingly mercurial interest rates. The prime lending rate that big commercial banks charge their best corporate customers jumped last week to 21.5%, breaking the 20% peak of last April and heightening fears of a renewed economic downturn. The economists on TIME'S board predicted that the rate is likely to go as high as 23% early next year...
...this and other reasons, the board concluded that 1981, which was seen only a few months ago as a period of at least slow recovery from 1980's slump, will be another year of recession. Board members differed on the timing and severity of a 1981 decline, but agreed that a contraction is now all but unavoidable. Yet they believed that the 1981 slump will not be as sharp as this year's, when the GNP in the second quarter declined at an annual rate of 9.6%. Republican Conservative Monetarist Beryl Sprinkel, chief economist for Chicago...
...median forecast of the board members is a modest growth in the economy of about 1.3% during 1981, including a decline of about .3% between January and June. They foresee the economy recovering at a growth rate of slightly less than 3% during the second half of next year...