Word: binning
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...invasion is ruled out, substantial military force is not. As soon as the U.S. gathers credible intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts, expect a combination of air power and special forces on the ground. "I think we'll end up paralyzing a big chunk of Afghanistan with air strikes, and then move rapidly to do a decisive takedown," a U.S. Army general tells TIME. If that is the game, a nighttime blizzard of cruise missiles and bombs would be followed by U.S. commandos--probably including elements of the 82nd Airborne, backed by elite Army Rangers and Delta Force members...
...took 24,000 troops 14 days to find Manuel Noriega in the relatively benign environment of Panama. "We're good at hitting big, immovable things," says an Air Force general. "We don't do so well when they move around and they're small." Both are true of bin Laden. "He is the hardest man ever to get to," says Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert at St. Andrews University in Scotland. To avoid being spotted by satellites, bin Laden and his associates use human couriers to relay messages, who sometimes travel on foot rather than in cars. He has been...
...even if the special forces get to him, what then? This isn't a case, in the sort of language loved by military folks, in which you just cut off the head of the snake and let the body wither. "Terrorism is not bin Laden," says a senior U.S. intelligence official. "He's got lieutenants waiting to succeed him." The cellular, secretive structure of al-Qaeda--small groups of operatives acting almost independently--militates against a quick, decisive strike. Says Ranstorp: "Al-Qaeda is truly a multinational enterprise; they have made it into a decentralized organization that understands the power...
...international nature of al-Qaeda makes the task of defeating it that much harder. There are thought to be sympathizers and operatives in dozens of countries, all sharing a messianic vision of an Islamic holy war and posing new challenges to the forces of counterterrorism. Many of bin Laden's foot soldiers have combat and logistical experience gained in the Afghan war of 1979-89; indeed, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan turns out to have been one of those events that unexpectedly changes the world. It hastened the demise of the Soviet Union, as poorly trained young Soviet troops...
Hence early, armed retaliation is likely to be limited to Afghanistan. From 1994 through 1996, the Islamic extremist Taliban moved to fill the power vacuum that had existed since the end of the war. Although the Taliban frequently claims to keep bin Laden in a box, in practice it has defended him. Opposition sources say a brigade of his fighters has been on the front lines in the Taliban's war against the Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Massood. (In what may turn out to be an indication of trouble to come, Massood was the victim of a suicide...