Word: binning
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...order to anticipate the next moves of al Qaeda with or without bin Laden, it is important to remember the history of the network. Al Qaeda was not built from the ground up as a tight, vertical structure leading all the way up to bin Laden and those around him. Instead, it evolved out of bin Laden's own core of Arab veterans of the Afghan anti-Soviet war merging with elements of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and other groups, engaging with local Islamic struggles from Bosnia and Chechnya to the Philippines and Somalia by providing trained fighters and funding...
...beyond their traditional focus on terrorizing Algerians and Frenchmen. Many of al Qaeda's own structures, as well as allied networks, are probably still out there, their operational ability unaffected by the setbacks in Afghanistan. But those setbacks could cause a serious and potentially fatal morale problem for bin Laden or any other al Qaeda operatives looking to survive and fight on. Even before they set about trying to rebuild in new sanctuaries, they will be under pressure to hold their forces together by showing that despite the losses they've suffered, they're still able to strike back...
...Afghan tribesmen fighting at Tora Bora insist they've heard al Qaeda radio traffic suggesting bin Laden is in the complex. Some say they've even seen him on a white horse rallying his troops. Al Jezeera TV last weekend breathlessly reported claims that bin Laden has undergone plastic surgery, without bothering to ask why he'd need any - by simply removing his turban, cutting his hair, shaving off his beard and donning a cheap knockoff Armani suit, bin Laden in the flesh would be unrecognizable to most...
...Where would he go? Well, Pakistan may be a necessary port of call, but he would have wanted to move through it quickly. Countries on the U.S. watch-list such as Somalia, Yemen and the Philippines may be too "hot" for a fish as big as bin Laden. He might be more inclined to go where he's least expected - countries where the government would never dream of offering him sanctuary, but where he may nonetheless have a few powerful friends capable of hiding him. Free advice from an uninformed amateur: If he's not found in Tora Bora...
...officials have repeatedly warned, the war on terrorism is not about bin Laden. His capture or death would certainly deal a harsh blow to al Qaeda and destroy his carefully-constructed image as America's nemesis. But depriving the movement of its poster-boy icon and chief spokesman won't necessarily extinguish the threat it represents. Bin Laden has never been the network's operational commander, and although he is known to his acolytes as "the sheikh" he has no clerical standing, either. His contribution may have come primarily as a rainmaker raising funds among wealthy Gulf Arabs...