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...question is: What will Allon propose now? Officials in Jerusalem hint that Israel might return the oilfields if it received a guaranteed substitute source (possibly the U.S.) for the 25 million bbl. Abu Rudeis now pumps out annually. Israel might also give up the passes, according to these officials, if: 1) the area were demilitarized, 2) the term of the disengagement ran for several years, 3) Israeli cargoes (though not necessarily Israeli ships) had rights of passage through the Suez Canal, and 4) Egypt tacitly agreed to some kind of assurance of nonbelligerence. Egypt may find some of these points...
Another apparent casualty of the Colorado talks was an arbitrary ceiling on imports of foreign oil, which is now flowing into the U.S. at a rate of 7.3 million bbl. a day. The experts found that such a limit not only would bring back the long lines at the gas pumps but would worsen the current economic downturn. Administration predictions show that a "cap" holding oil imports to 1 million bbl. a day would gouge as much as $25 billion out of the gross national product and add upward of 400,000 to the unemployment rolls within a year...
IMPORT TARIFF. Citing a national security clause in the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, Ford could slap a tariff of $1 to $3 per bbl. on already costly foreign oil. Most of that oil goes to the Northeastern states, where it heats 30% of the homes and fuels 90% of the oil-fired generating plants. To ease the economic impact on those states, the Administration would spread the higher crude-oil costs around the country through the current equalization program. In effect, Western refineries with easy access to "old" domestic oil, selling at a controlled price of $5.25 per bbl., would...
...most of the excise tax revenues (estimated at $10.5 billion a year) would be returned to the low-and middle-income fuel users who would be most hurt. Within a year, Administration economists say, the tax on oil alone would reduce daily consumption by 750,000 to 800,000 bbl...
...treble auto ownership (to 9 million cars) by 1980. Soon the Soviets will have to restrict oil sales and greatly increase the preferential prices that they charge to their Comecon partners. Last year Poland reportedly had to buy a large amount of Libyan crude, at $16 to $20 per bbl. Strapped for hard currency to pay for oil from non-Communist sources, East Germany had to restrict the expansion of its plastics and textiles industries...