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...that South Carolina stopped Bob Dole in 1988, handing the nomination to the establishment candidate, George Bush, the father. Then again in 2000, John McCain lost his cool and his lead in the face of a revolt from the party base, which chose another establishment candidate, George Bush...
Perhaps the biggest factor separating the two men is simple demographics. As in Iowa, Huckabee finds himself with a direct line to the evangelical voters who dominate the Republican base. David Woodard, who helps run the Clemson University Palmetto Poll, says that over the last 20 years, between 60 and 70 percent of the state's likely Republican primary voters have gone to church at least once a week. Of that group, about half are Southern Baptist, the faith of the pastor-turned-politician Huckabee. "When he won in Iowa, that gave him a lot of credibility across the state...
...onetime darling of southern conservatives with an endorsement from National Right to Life, has mounted an aggressive bus tour across the state as a last-ditch effort to save his foundering campaign. If he regains momentum, he could eat back into Huckabee's support among the pro-life base of the party. Similarly, Romney retains a well-funded operation, with heavy television ad buys and near daily direct mail drops. "It's still bunched up," said Warren Tompkins, Romney's consultant in the state, putting an optimistic spin on the recent polling...
Indeed, it did - especially with unmarried women, a key component of the Democratic base. One campaign adviser noted that where Obama won that demographic by 13 percentage points in Iowa, Clinton carried it by 17 points in New Hampshire - a 30-point shift over in the course of five days. (It also couldn't have hurt that a great number of men from the punditocracy spent the hours before the primary gleefully anticipating a Clinton catastrophe...
...Those women responded by coming out for her in droves in New Hampshire. They represent a very moving counterforce to the legions of young people Obama has activated across the country. Both Clinton and Obama have a solid base now - and both have a similar problem: trying to reach past that base, especially to the working-class (white) men who may well decide the general election in states like Ohio. Clinton's "beef" may prove the more sturdy product in a party that thinks, as labor leader Andrew Stern once said, that electing a President is College Bowl...