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...held just a few months from now, let alone a year. Then, the economic outlook might have been much worse and immigration might have become an even more divisive issue. The twin issues at the core of the campaign would clearly have benefited the PP by eroding the Socialist base of blue-collar workers afraid of their mortgage payments and foreign labor competition...
...measure, including turnout and fund raising. Even the percentage of Americans who identify themselves with the Republicans has fallen to 39%, according to Gallup, compared to 52% who identify with the Democrats. The McCain campaign is aware of the challenge. "We understand that we have got to get the base enthusiastic," explained Charlie Black, a lobbyist and senior advisor to the McCain campaign. But Black says he is not worried about the crowds. "Some of the biggest rallies in political history were for George McGovern," Black said of the anti-war Democratic candidate in 1972, who lost 49 states...
Nutter, meanwhile, admits that Obama's base seems more strongly enthusiastic than Clinton's, but he said the experience and political muscle of the New York Senator's base may prove stronger. Obama's organization "certainly has to be respected," he told TIME, but the key is "how you translate that into on-the-ground troops that know how to run elections and get people to come out to the polls. It's one thing to have events and rallies and be moved by stirring oratory; it's another that people know you and are motivated to come...
...impact of the weather is difficult to predict. Clinton typically performs better among older voters and senior citizens, who may be more likely to stay home in inclement weather. On the other hand, Obama's fortunes depend on his ability to recruit and mobilize his own grassroots base that is independent of the Democratic Party establishment, which in Ohio has largely supported Clinton. Whether he can mobilize his effective Get Out the Vote machine in such terrible conditions remains to be seen...
...trails her 56% to 34% in the latest Cleveland Plain Dealer poll, conducted February 27-29. Either way, Obama can already claim one crucial victory; by effectively splitting labor's endorsements with Clinton, he has prevented her from solidifying what was supposed to be a reliable part of her base...