Word: retrenchments
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...testimony that Greenspan feels hope for the economy to start picking up over the next few quarters; now, in the light of the Q2 number, will be the time to contemplate just what he meant by "period of sub-par growth" and "stabilize at a lower level." If consumers retrench, that period could be very sub-par indeed; if they don?t, well, it?s not going to get much better than 0.7 for quite a while. New Fed betting is on a quarter-point cut (at least) in August and more after that...
...start. Wednesday morning came with more numbers - the index of leading economic indicators slid again, more steeply in March than in February, and the trade deficit was suddenly lower than it's been since the end of '99, thanks to record monthly decline in imports. Consumers were starting to retrench, no more pretending they weren't, and if they stayed away the economy had nowhere to go but down...
...spite of the growth in layoffs, many companies are clearly reluctant to retrench large numbers of workers. They've spent so much time finding and training their workforce in a tight labor market that many companies are thinking that if this a shallow recession, they'd rather tough it out. They don't want to be left having to replace their workforce if the economy picks up quickly, which is what they're hoping the Fed's rate cuts will achieve. So we're not likely to see a quick rise in unemployment...
...former intern and the special prosecutor each have something the other wants. Friday's offer: Lewinsky would testify that she had sex with the president in return for immunity. So far, Starr's turned that down, thinking he can get a better deal. Meanwhile, all sides in the case retrench...
...country and are still pressing forward. Although Holbrooke's peace plan calls for a cease-fire agreement by September 25, Stiglmayer reports that Bosnia's Foreign Minister Muhamed Sacirbey told reporters today that the fighting would continue, since he does not want to give the Serbs a chance to retrench. Stiglmayer notes: "Sacirbey thinks that negotiations will stretch into October, but an agreement will be signed after that...