Word: montenegro
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...Yugoslav republics have been whittled down to two. First Slovenia and Croatia went their own ways, then Bosnia withdrew, triggering the long siege of Sarajevo, then Macedonia managed to get out miraculously without violence. Now, with a seemingly minor election later this week in the small mountain republic of Montenegro, Serbia's remaining partner in the incredible shrinking federation is set to leave as well. That will close the book on one of the least successful political entities of the 20th century...
...least it will be peaceful. Less than a year ago, threats by Djukanovic to hold a referendum raised fears of a new Balkan war. But while Yugoslav troops are still stationed in Montenegro, Kostunica affirmed this month that his government would not oppose secession - though he frankly finds it a bad idea. So does the rest of Europe, which fears the precedent in an already unstable region...
...real question about the impending split is why. As long as Milosevic was in power, Montenegrins had ample reason to distance themselves from the regime. But even with Milosevic in prison, Djukanovic insists there are good reasons to get out. One is size. Under a six-nation Yugoslav federation, Montenegro enjoyed equal status with the other republics. Today, says Djukanovic, real power sharing for the 650,000 Montenegrins is "an illusion." He asks: "How can you have an equal partnership if one partner is 18 times larger than the other...
...Another concern in the capital Podgorica is the loss of Western aid, which under Milosevic flowed only to Montenegro but now has been diverted, in part, to Belgrade. With 40% unemployment and little in the way of industry, that assistance is critical, and Djukanovic may be betting that an independent Montenegro will be in a stronger position...
...that providers of aid are supportive of independence. Secretary of State Colin Powell refused to meet with Djukanovic when he visited Washington in January, and E.U. external relations Commissioner Chris Patten said this month: "We want to see a democratic Montenegro in a democratic and reformed Yugoslavia. We don't agree with Djukanovic...