Word: jaafari
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...Jaafari, who has complained of Western meddling, could of course stay on: He has the backing of the Shi'ite populist Moqtada Sadr, whose Mehdi Army is one of the most powerful militias in Iraq. The support of Sadr's parliamentary delegation had given Jaafari victory over Abdul Mahdi by a margin of one vote in the list's internal election of a candidate for prime minister. But faced with the combined opposition of the Kurds, the Sunnis, his Shi'ite rivals and the U.S. (which also controls the Iraqi security forces), Jaafari will struggle to create a working government...
...Ousting Jaafari, however, won't necessarily improve the prospects for creating a unity government that reverses the trend towards civil war. Here's why the problems cited by Jaafari's critics may persist even if he is replaced, particularly by Abdul-Mahdi, who appears to now enjoy U.S. backing...
...Sunnis oppose Jaafari because he is perceived as unwilling to rein in the sectarian thuggery of the Shiite militias-both Sadr's Mehdi Army, and the SCIRI-affiliated Badr Brigade. The U.S. correctly perceived that bringing the Sunnis on board and quelling their insurgency requires clamping down on the Shi'ite militias, but it's not clear that Abdul-Mahdi would prove more likely to achieve this, particularly given his own party's connections to one of the primary offenders. Indeed, the Shi'ite parties, including SCIRI, point to the Sunni insurgency and the failure of the U.S. and Iraqi...
...Kurds' primary problem with Jaafari may be less his sectarian or Islamist inclinations, than his refusal to back their claim on the oil city of Kirkuk-and his willingness to consort with Turkey to prevent the emergence of a viable Kurdish entity with de facto independence. Again, Jaafari's position on this issue is shared by the Sunnis and the more nationalist (as opposed to Iran-inclined) Shi'ites...
...Jaafari's Shi'ite rivals are challenging him as part of a power play, and if he is ousted and replaced by Abdul Mahdi, it's safe bet that the prime minister's allies, such as the Sadr movement, will look to push back against the new government and its U.S. and British backers...