Word: econometricians
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...Economic Advisers' forecast of a 4.7% G.N.P. growth was a hopeful near-point above the actual 3.8%, and Chase Econometrics' estimate of 7.4% unemployment a gloomy plateau above the actual 6%.) The most meticulous scientific methods of forecasting economics-so says one of the foremost prophets, Boston Econometrician Otto Eckstein-produce results with errors only 35% to 40% smaller than those arising from careful guesstimating. Perhaps unnecessarily, Eckstein adds: "There's plenty of room for humility." The humbling failure of scientists to predict surely either the course of nature (as in the weather) or cultural dynamics...
Taylor, an econometrician, has studied consumption in the United States and post-war unemployment in the United States and other countries. He has taught at Harvard since...
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